Reel Talk: My picks for Oscar winners

Sunday night is the Academy Awards ceremony, which mean everyone is prepping themselves for Oscar pools at work or home.

In most cases bragging rights are on the line, and with so many categories, it can be a little challenging figuring who will take home the Oscar.

At the turn of the new year, my gut told me "Moonlight" would take home best picture, but once "La La Land" scored a record-tying 14 nominations, my gut feeling changed.

"La La Land" was the little Hollywood throwback that could, having earned nearly $300 million against a $30 million budget. It was a movie that director Damien Chazelle said was six years in the making, and one he thought would never get made.

The movie has become a darling among critics and audiences. It truly earned every nomination. The first five minutes alone is worth your time and ticket money.

"La La Land" is a classic, a Hollywood musical they don't make anymore. It has the high production values we've seen in "Chicago" and "Moulin Rouge," but this film is grounded with a great heart, wonderful music, energy and a meloncholy twist on romantic comedies.

While "La La Land" has audiences remembering the days of Hollywood classics, "Moonlight" seems to represent a changing of the guard when it comes to the need for diversity in cinema.

This year, #OscarSoWhite does not apply, as minorities are well-represented, and "Moonlight" is definitely in the running for best picture.

I've said it before, the Oscar for best picture will come down to "La La Land" or "Moonlight."

I expect "La La Land" to be the big winner Sunday night, but again I would not be surprised if "Moonlight" takes best picture.

There are "the big six" categories, which includes best picture, best director and the acting categories including male and female lead and supporting categories.

When filling out an Oscar ballot, most people will skip over, or take a guess who will win, the lesser-known categories such as live-action short, or documentary short.

No matter whether I know every category or not, I take my best guess at it. Here are my picks for the big six categories, plus a few other categories I enjoy.

Best Picture

As I said earlier, it's "La La Land" and "Moonlight" in what I call a razor-thin close race. My pick is "La La Land" because it is a freight train of momentum, both with its 14 nominations and the wild success at the box office. It's not uncommon for a movie to win best picture despite a low box office take —  "The Hurt Locker," for example, made $49 million worldwide in 2009 but upset the big-budget box office giant "Avatar" for best picture. But "Moonlight" has made just $21 million and didn't get a big bump like "La La Land" when nominations were announced.

Best Director

I think Damien Chazelle wins for his directing "La La Land" with its wonderful music, dance numbers and unique camera movements.

Barry Jenkins is nominated for "Moonlight"  and I think Mel Gibson did a phenomenal job with "Hacksaw Ridge."

Best Actor

Casey Affleck is the clear favorite for "Manchester by the Sea," having won about every award for best actor in the other Hollywood contests. At this point it doesn't really seem close, or even possible, that someone else could slip in and steal the Oscar from Affleck.

Best Actress

In early December, most people would have put Natalie Portman at the top of this list for her role as Jackie Kennedy — but that was before critics and audiences swooned for Emma Stone in "La La Land."

Some may criticize Stone's singing as not being what you would normally see in a musical, but in this case it works to her advantage. The movie is about vulnerability, and broken dreams of Hollywood. The singing is just fine, and Stone is pure energy as Mia.

A possible upset could be Portman for "Jackie," but Stone seems destined to win.

Best Supporting Actor

Perhaps this is the hardest category to pick. Mahershala Ali is a favorite for "Moonlight," but voters may side with Jeff Bridges for his role as a lawman in "Hell or High Water."

I think Ali wins by the skin of his teeth.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis for her role in "Fences." Enough said.

She is the only other shoe-in aside from Affleck for best actor.

Best Cinematography

I think "La La Land" takes the Oscar home because of its poppy energy and beautiful use of natural light. It's always a hard category to choose.

My sleeper is "Silence." It's a Martin Scorsese film and Rodrigo Prieto was previously nominated for cinematography for "Brokeback Mountain."

Best Visual Effects

This category is a toss-up to me. "The Jungle Book" was a well-blended live-action retelling of the Disney classic.

Don't sleep on "Doctor Strange" or "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story."

Seems like this a Disney-centric category. This may be a "pick your favorite" or throw a dart at the board and see what it hits.

Best Animated Feature

My heart says "Moana," the beautiful Disney princess movie featuring a strong female lead, but the money is on Disney's "Zootopia."

Best Original Screenplay

"Manchester by the Sea" is a safe pick here. Kenneth Lonergan's screenplay may deal with the dreary subject matter of a family broken by tragedy, but it is a tightly wound drama with hints of comedy.

Best Adapted Screenplay.

I can't imagine "Moonlight" not taking home at least two Oscars of its eight nominations, and this category seems to make sense.

"Lion," the movie about an Indian boy lost from his family and adopted by a Australian couple, could be a sleeper in this category.

There you have it, my best guesses at how the more than 6,000 Academy members will vote.

With 26 or so categories, my goal is try and hit close to 50 percent.

cshoup@gannett.com

419-334-1035

Twitter: @CraigShoupNH