Even Democrats think Ted Strickland is in trouble

WASHINGTON – Former Gov. Ted Strickland isn’t having a great week.

Within 24 hours, two key Democratic groups, dedicated to retaking the U.S. Senate from Republicans, have delayed tens of thousands of dollars in television ads supporting Strickland. And a GOP political action committee tied to the Koch brothers, so confident of Portman’s prospects, has halted $2.1 million in ad reserves for the end of September.

The developments signal that political strategists in both parties see Portman's re-election bid as increasingly secure –and Strickland's prospects as increasingly remote.

"(Portman) maintains a significant lead in virtually every poll, and the dynamics of the race have changed,” said James Davis, a spokesman for Freedom Partners Action Fund, a conservative group connected to the Koch brothers.

In recent weeks, Portman has overtaken Strickland in the polls, leading by an average of 7.5 percentage points. Portman snatched a few union endorsements from the Democrat and maintains a massive fundraising advantage.

But in 2016 politics, anything goes. A strong performance by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who is up roughly 4 percentage points over Republican Donald Trump in Ohio, would buoy Strickland’s bid as well. And Trump’s sometimes inflammatory comments could damage Portman, who has endorsed the GOP nominee.

Strickland’s campaign downplayed the recent moves.

"Portman and his billionaire allies have already spent more money attacking Ted Strickland than any other Democrat in the country – including Hillary Clinton – and they’ve failed to put this race away," Strickland spokesman David Bergstein said.

He suggested he'd be relieved to see the attacks from GOP groups fade. The Freedom Partners group announced on Tuesday that while it would remain on the air with anti-Strickland ads through Sept. 14, the group would drop its remaining TV reservations for the month.

The conservative group bailed after two Democratic committees said they planned to scale back their advertising on behalf of Strickland.

Democrats back off

The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC devoted to electing Democrats to the Senate, cancelled television air time it had reserved in key Ohio markets for Sept. 6 through Sept. 16. That's a key moment in the campaign, as many voters start tuning in to the election after Labor Day. A spokesman for the super PAC said the group will now begin ads two weeks later, on Sept. 20.

“We regularly adjust strategy to maximize our resources and make sure we’re in the best possible position to win back the majority this November," said Shripal Shah, the Senate Majority PAC's spokesman.

On Monday night, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee decided to delay, by one week, its plan to spend as much as $10 million on the Ohio race. As first reported by the Washington Post, the DSCC ad campaign was slated to start on Sept. 13, but the first week of ads has now been cancelled.

Bergstein said the DSCC's independent expenditures were replaced – not cancelled – by a more direct and immediate infusion.

The national committee is helping to foot the bill now for a pro-Strickland ad that went on the air last week. It ties Portman to GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and highlights their shared opposition to abortion rights, among other issues.

“The DSCC is spending the same amount of money they were slated to spend, it’s just being used to help fund our existing ad instead of through an independent expenditure,” Bergstein said.

Why this all matters

The Ohio Senate race has long been in the national spotlight, as one of a handful of contests that could help determine which party controls the Senate come January. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the chamber if Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton wins the White House, and five if Trump wins the presidency.

Portman has consistently outpaced Strickland in fundraising, raising nearly $20.9 million to Strickland's approximately $7 million haul. Portman has also benefited from more outside spending from conservative groups than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country.

A recent analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project showed that Republican-leaning groups have spent $18.2 million to boost Portman or knock Strickland – more than twice the $8 million outlay of those same groups have invested in the Pennsylvania Senate race, another hotly contested seat.

Democratic-affiliated groups haven't let Strickland starve, spending more than $12 million on his behalf in Ohio. But the gap – more than $8 million in Portman's favor when spending by the two candidates is included – has made a dent. Several recent polls show Portman gaining ground in a race that had been deadlocked.

Meanwhile, other Senate races in Missouri and North Carolina have emerged as potentially more promising for Democrats.

"There are a lot of other mouths to feed on a big map with big states," said Brad Todd, a Republican media strategist.

Is Strickland doing enough to remain competitive?

In the Ohio race, Strickland has had a few missteps on the campaign trail. Most notably, he said Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died at a “good time” to avoid decisions unfavorable to labor unions. Strickland later apologized.

But the Democratic challengers’ main struggle has been money. On paper, Strickland should be a good fundraiser: He was governor in Ohio, a longtime Congressman, a Clinton family supporter and very nearly the chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

“There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be raising more money,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. “If donors don’t believe it’s a competitive race, sometimes donors don’t put in the time and energy.”

But Strickland isn’t the progressive that some donors are looking for, Gonzales said. He was once endorsed by the National Rifle Association and supported anti-abortion initiatives. His stances on gun control and abortion have since shifted left, and those groups have abandoned him.

Strickland was never going to outraise Portman, but Democrats wonder if he’s doing enough to remain competitive. A Strickland consultant initially set a goal of reaching $20 million by Election Day. Most experts say he’ll need about $10 million to prevail.

“He’s behind and that does not give donors a lot of confidence,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for The Cook Political Report. “Is he spending the time on the phone that he needs to spend? Is he doing the events he needs to do?”

What comes next will be important: Is this a temporary setback or will they cancel more ads next week?

“If they keep canceling buys, then it’s going to look a lot like throwing in the towel,” Duffy said.