NEWS

What's next for John Kasich's GOP presidential campaign

Chrissie Thompson
cthompson@usatoday.com

BLUFFTON, S.C. — For nearly a year, John Kasich had pledged a top-tier performance in New Hampshire would rocket his presidential candidacy to prominence.

Ohio governor John Kasich speaks to a standing-room only crowd during the Georgetown County Town Hall at the Applewood House of Pancakes in Pawleys Island, South Carolina Thursday February 11, 2016.

Second place in New Hampshire: check. Next stop: South Carolina, where Kasich has drawn his biggest crowds of the campaign. He drew 900 at an outdoor pavilion near Hilton Head Island -- more, local security staff said, than Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush had drawn earlier in the week.

But Kasich doesn't expect to repeat his New Hampshire performance in South Carolina and the conservative states that vote after it.

Here's what's ahead for Kasich as he moves on to Saturday's debate, the Feb. 20 South Carolina primary and beyond.

1. Destination: Ohio (& Michigan)

To understand Kasich’s strategy in South Carolina, know this: Now that he has a top-tier finish, he’s starting a marathon he hopes will end in a game-changing primary win in his home state of Ohio, the quintessential swing state. He enjoys an approval rating of more than 60 percent in the state.

Before Ohio’s March 15 voting date – chosen to provide Kasich with the maximum possible number of delegates if he wins – the Republican primary process runs through several Southern states. Kasich isn’t expected to win those primaries, so he’s splitting his time and money between next-up South Carolina and states where he might perform better.

Before New Hampshire, Kasich’s campaign and political action committee had lagged most rivals in fundraising, but say they received a bump in contributions after his top-tier finish.

Neither group would give specifics, but the Washington Post reported the campaign brought in about $500,000 online in the first several hours after the New Hampshire primary. Billionaire Home Depot co-creator Ken Langone, who had supported Chris Christie before he ended his campaign, now is backing Kasich. The PAC also had brought in about $4 million in the days before New Hampshire voted and budgeted most of it for South Carolina and beyond.

Who are Kasich's big money donors?

The target for a first win? Kasich is hoping to build on across-the-border support in Michigan, which votes March 8 and where he’ll campaign for two days next week.

“#SC is must do well for others who don’t have a top two finish yet. Planting our flag in MI,” spokesman Chris Schrimpf tweeted this week. A few hours later, he tweeted: “We will compete and win delegates but Jeb & Marco haven’t come in even 2nd anywhere.”

The Kasich campaign has said South Carolina will be a bloodbath between the two Floridians, downplaying Kasich’s chances to beat either of them.

2. Speaking of Jeb…

Still, the first South Carolina poll since New Hampshire puts Kasich in a statistical tie with Bush for fourth place, behind Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Rubio.

And with his governor background, Bush represents Kasich’s biggest rival now that Christie has dropped out. A disappointing performance by Bush would fuel the Ohio governor's campaign, at the least.

John Kasich finishes 2nd in New Hampshire primary, vaulting to prominence in GOP race

So the first few days in South Carolina included some sniping between Bush and Kasich and their allies, escalating late Friday with the release of a new attack ad against Kasich. Saturday’s debate may feature more of the same.

“I’m worried about Jeb. It’s all negative. How the heck do you sell negative?” Kasich told supporters Thursday in Pawleys Island.  “If positive doesn’t work, then what do you get if you spend your time living in the dark?”

Later, Kasich reportedly suggested Bush’s criticism of him and other candidates risked damaging his family’s legacy. Kasich has generally avoided criticizing opponents in his campaign stops.

“I’m glad he’s concerned about the legacy,” Bush told reporters Thursday in Columbia. “Governor Kasich is a good guy, and he’s been a good governor. But my record as a conservative reformer far exceeds his. And that’s not attacking. That’s not negative. That’s what you call comparing and contrasting.”

Bush’s biggest criticism of Kasich since hitting South Carolina has centered on the Ohio governor’s embrace of the expansion of Medicaid under President Barack Obama’s health care law. Unlike Ohio, South Carolina declined to use the health care law to extend Medicaid benefits to more citizens. Bush said he took the conservative route of encouraging Florida’s Legislature not to expand the health care program.

Kasich responded Friday on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom,” suggesting Bush’s comments were disingenuous because he served as a board member of a health care company that endorsed Medicaid expansion.

The rhetoric escalated later Friday when Bush's PAC, Right to Rise, released an ad that accused Kasich of "supporting massive defense cuts."

In Congress, Kasich supported changes in what he viewed as unnecessary areas of military spending, such as some lucrative defense contracts, the proposed mass production of the B-2 bomber and the perpetuation of some U.S. military bases. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who won the South Carolina primary in 2012, has called the commercial's implications "false" and, in a statement to Politco, called for the ad to come down.

Despite the sniping, Bush’s goal is larger than just defeating Kasich: After edging out Rubio in New Hampshire, Bush hopes to overtake him in South Carolina. His brother, former President George W. Bush, is still popular in the state, which has a large population of military members and veterans. The two Bushes plan to campaign together next week, and Bush this week said he hoped the South Carolina primary would turn on national security issues.

3. A Kasich for South Carolina

Even with the downplayed expectations, Kasich must fight the notion that he’s too moderate for the Republican Party’s base in the South by holding his own in South Carolina next week.

Coming out of New Hampshire, he had work to do.

Julie McBride, a server at Applewood House of Pancakes in Pawleys Island, South Carolina talks with John Kasich about not having health insurance during a Feb. 11 town hall.

“As best I can tell, he has no ground game in South Carolina,” said C. Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Furman University in Greenville. “We have seen no Kasich ads. We’ve seen Rubio ads. We’ve seen Bush ads. I’ve had Bush and Rubio in my mailbox for more than a month. But I have seen not one single thing nor received one phone call from anything related to Kasich.”

As of this week, both Kasich’s PAC and campaign are running biographical ads in the state. They emphasize Kasich’s blue-collar roots, his record as governor and in Congress, and his exhortation in last week’s debate to “buy a seat belt” for his first 100 days in office. PAC and campaign staffers in South Carolina are seeking to get potential voters in front of Kasich now that he has some momentum.

John Kasich gets bigger-than-expected crowds on South Carolina primary trail

In the conservative Palmetto State, Kasich more about his faith than he did in New Hampshire, whose Republicans are less likely to be evangelical Christians than those in South Carolina. But he generally has kept to the same message that propelled him in the pragmatic Granite State.

For instance, Kasich has said for weeks that he plans to sign an Ohio bill that would cut off taxpayer money to Planned Parenthood, but he didn’t mention the bill at several South Carolina campaign events attended by Enquirer reporters.

Anticipating the attack on his record on some aspects of military spending in Congress, he’s positioned himself as a reformer of Pentagon bureaucracy.

And he has focused his stump speech on a defense of Medicaid expansion, without mentioning the program by name.

“There are times when we’ve got to help people and pull them out of the ditch. And I prefer to do it without the government, but until somebody can show me they can do that, then there’s gonna have to be some help,” Kasich told a crowd of about 400 in North Myrtle Beach. “You know what I am? I’m a ‘Kasich Republican.’ ”

As in New Hampshire, Kasich is attracting Republicans who say they are looking for a moderate and for whom his support for Medicaid expansion isn’t a big issue. And as in New Hampshire, he’s attracting some people who usually vote Democratic.

His crowds are usually full of white retirees, but Kasich talks often about helping “our friends in the minority community.” About 20 African-Americans came to hear him Friday at a barbecue joint in Orangeburg. Many of them had heard about Kasich from his PAC, which three weeks ago attracted about 400 to 500 African-American business owners to an event to meet Kasich supporters. Those voters often support Democrats.

“It’s past due,” said 27-year-old Jeremiah Whitley, of Columbia, who plans to vote for Kasich. “We do need some light on ‘the minority community.’ ” The phrase is a bit unartful, Whitley acknowledged, but Kasich’s philosophy is on track, he said.

“Hey, look,” Kasich told two African-Americans on his way out, seeking to get their attention. Under his philosophy, he said, “everyone goes up.”

The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Jeremy Fugleberg and USA Today’s Ledyard King and Fredreka Schouten contributed to this report.

John Kasich takes questions from the crowd during the Charleston County Town Hall at Finn's Brick Oven in Mt Pleasant, South Carolina, Wednesday February 10, 2016.

About Saturday's debate

When: 9 p.m.-11 p.m.

Where: Peace Center, Greenville, SC

Who: The six remaining GOP candidates: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and John Kasich

Channel: CBS

Streaming: CBSNews.com

Moderators: Face the Nation anchor and CBS News political director John Dickerson will be the debate's main moderator and will be joined by CBS News White House correspondent Major Garrett and The Wall Street Journal's Kimberley Strassel.

Come to Cincinnati.com Sunday morning for debate analysis from The Enquirer's Chrissie Thompson, who is covering John Kasich's campaign.