Just a number? Reading into wrestling rankings
It really wasn't going to matter if the area wrestling landscape this winter was fertile or closer to barren. Either way, living up to last year's riveting theater at the state tournament was going to be next to impossible.
The storylines were a sports writer's dream: Lexington's Drew Kasper wins a state title 11 weeks after knee surgery. Lex's Bailey Faust and Galion's Deaken McCoy come within a breath of their own state titles, both losing by 3-2 margins in the fourth and final overtime. Lex's five state qualifiers all end up on the podium, leading the Minutemen to third place in Division II.
Will this year's meet in Columbus be dripping with the same kind of drama? Based on the rankings of state analysts Josh Lowe and Billy Schaefer, probably not.
Lowe, in his 13th year of producing the Lowedown Report, ranks the top 16 in the majority of weight classes in the three divisions. Only 18 area wrestlers — just four from Richland County schools — made the cut. Eight cracked the top 10.
By comparison, Lowe had 18 area wrestlers ranked in the the top 10 last year, including 10 from Richland County. He also tabbed Mansfield Senior's Jesse Palser as a projected champ (he finished third) and Kasper and Faust as projected finalists.
This year, the area again has a No. 1-ranked wrestler in reigning J.C. Gorman Invitational champ John Smith of Mapleton at 126 pounds in Division III. He's ranked No. 1 by both analysts, but Lowe doesn't exactly describe him as an overwhelming favorite. Not after Smith entered last year's state tournament as a district champ only to lose his first match in overtime.
"Book no certainties with him or any other wrestler in this weight class," Lowe writes in his report.
A few more area wrestlers, both in and outside of Richland County, made Billy Schaefer's rankings at borofanohio.net, largely because he expands each class to include 25 wrestlers.
The state meet podium only has eight rungs, which means that based off these sets of rankings the area will have between eight and 10 medalists. Last year, there were 16 — and a lot of that was because Lexington was finishing an amazing seven-year run.
With the forecast less sunny this season, the message from area coaches to their wrestlers should be simple: Prove the analysts wrong.
Or, in Ashland's case, right.
Second-year coach Sean Seder has eight Arrows ranked in one or both Division II rankings. Seven of the eight won titles last week in leading Ashland to its first Ohio Cardinal Conference title in 10 years. The other finished second.
Senior 220-pounder Tristen Weirich is ranked fourth in both listings. Junior 145-pounder Sid Ohl, son of former Ontario state champ Perry Ohl, is ranked fourth by Schaefer and fifth by Lowe.
Does that mean they are shoo-ins for state? Not necessarily. Their weight classes at the Fostoria district meet will each include two other wrestlers ranked in the top five by Lowe, with the top four at each weight advancing to state.
Northmor, which fell one weight class win short of reaching the State Duals Tournament this weekend in Columbus, has six Knights popping up in one or both rankings, led by junior 106-pounder Jake Neer, a 2015 state qualifier. He's seventh in one and ninth in the other.
The Division II rankings are not a true reflection of how dangerous Doug Mosier's Madison Rams could be down the stretch. LeConte Merrell, son of the St. Peter's state champ by the same name, would undoubtedly be ranked higher than in the teens had he not sat out the first half of the season for the second year in a row.
Last year, despite the late start, Merrell made it to state and won a match in Columbus. Last Saturday, he easily won an OCC title with only a handful of matches under his belt and then, in a makeup dual meet with Ontario on Monday, he blanked ranked Taylor Komives 7-0.
Completely overlooked in both rankings were Madison lightweights Brad Silliman and Mikey Baumberger. Silliman's absence is a head-scratcher. No, he didn't have a good Gorman Invitational, but he's closing in on 30 wins and owns titles at the Tom Ellis Classic and OCC. Baumberger's no-ranking is easier to explain. He's missed most of the season with a broken hand and gets his cast off Wednesday. He was a state qualifier as a freshman in 2014.
If Baumberger gets the green light to compete, he'll have to wrestle-off next week for the 126 spot at sectionals with Caleb "OJ" Gibson, a district qualifier last year with 27 wins. Neither can go down in weight because of alpha testing and they can't go up to 132 because of Merrell.
So things could get very interesting in Madison's practice room.
Almost as interesting as some of the scenarios at this year's state tournament.
Lowe, who goes into great detail in his analysis, points out that after the 2015 state meet ended a streak of seven straight years where at least one wrestler sought a fourth state title, there should be two bidding for history this year — St. Paris Graham's Alex Marinelli and Claymont's Tyler Warner.
Lowe also notes that, barring upsets, the field will include 22 returning champions — 24 if you count titles won prior to 2015 —which is high relative to recent years. They represent extraordinary top end talent in Ohio. There are five individuals ranked among the top five nationally at their weight, tied for fifth most of any state, behind Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Minnesota and Illinois.
It's easy to put them at the top of the rankings. It's placing everybody else in a slot that gets challenging.
Lowe is right more than he's wrong, most years correctly predicting between 27 and 30 of the 42 state champs. But he has never claimed to be perfect.
If he were, "there would be a different line of employment for me," Lowe wrote, "(i.e.) pyschic or bookie."
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STATE RANKINGS
Area wrestlers ranked in the top 16 by state analyst Josh Lowe in his state tournament forecast called the Lowedown Report. Complete rankings can be found at jjhuddle.com
DIVISION I (no one)
DIVISION II
106: 11. Clay Eagle, Ashland, So.; 120: 10. Matt Taylor, Ashland, Jr.; 12. Carson Speelman, Madison, Jr.; 138: 11. Dakota Bunting, Highland, So. 14. LeConte Merrell, Madison, Jr.; 145: 5. Sid Ohl, Ashland, Jr.;195: 11. Zach Baker, Highland; Jr., 220: 4. Tristen Weirich, Ashland, Sr.; 285: 9. Devin Williams, Shelby, Jr.
DIVISION III
106: 7. Jacob Neer, Northmor, Jr.; 120: 12. Griffin Jenkins, Northmor, Sr.; 15. Ryan Matthews, Fredericktown, Jr.; 126: PROJECTED CHAMP John Smith, Mapleton, Sr.; 132: 14. Conan Becker, Northmor, So.; 145: 14. Ian Maund, Mapleton, Sr.; 160: (17 ranked at this weight) 17. Drake Barnett, Galion, Sr.; 220: 4. Cameron Conaway, South Central, Sr.; 11. Milan Pozderac, Fredericktown, Sr.
Area wrestlers ranked in the top 25 by state analyst Billy Schaefer. Complete rankings can be found at borofanohio.net.
DIVISION I
285: 20. Brandon Myers, Mansfield Senior, Jr.
DIVISION II
106: 10. Clay Eagle, Ashland, So.; 120: 10. Matt Taylor, Ashland, Jr.; 15. Carson Speelman, Madison, Jr.; 132: 19. LeConte Merrell, Madison, Jr.; 24. Landon Plank, Ashland, So.; 138: 17. Ricky Maffett, Ashland, Jr.; 22. Taylor Komives, Ontario, Sr.; 145: 4. Sid Ohl, Ashland, Jr.; 160: 23. Brahm Ginter, Shelby, So.; 170: 25. Devin Goschinski, Ashland, Jr.; 195: 6. Zach Baker, Highland, Jr.; 20. Josh Bever, Ashland, Fr.; 220: 4. Tristen Weirich, Ashland, Sr.; 285: 7. Devin Williams, Shelby, Jr.; 11. Sean Williams, Madison, Sr.
DIVISION III
106: 9. Jake Neer, Northmor, Jr.; 113. 24. Dakota Blanton, South Central, Fr.; 120: 18. Ryan Matthews, Fredericktown, Jr.; 21. Aaron Kitts, Northmor, So.; 126: PROJECTED CHAMP John Smith, Mapleton, Sr.; 132: 12. Conan Becker, Northmor, So.; 138: 16. Dalton Blanton, South Central, Sr.; 145: 14. Ian Maund, Mapleton, Jr.; 15. Jake Farley, Northmor, Sr.; 160: 8. Drake Barnett, Galion, Jr.; 16. Billy Matyac, Mount Gilead, Jr.; 170: 24. John Witischi, Clear Fork, So.; 182: 25. Ben Smith, Fredericktown, So.; 195: 25. Mason Burger, Northmor, Jr.; 220: 3. Cameron Conaway, South Central, Sr.; 13. Milan Pozderac, Fredericktown, Sr.