SPORTS

Anatomy of a Kentucky Derby ticket

The Kentucky Derby is the one race in the year where big money can be made for the smart or lucky handicapper.

Rob McCurdy
Reporter
Churchill Downs, perhaps the most famous horse racing venue in the world, will host the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

The Kentucky Derby, horse racing's Powerball.

It's the one race on the calendar where life-changing money can be made by the best — and luckiest — handicappers.

Since 2005, the trifecta paid five-figures three times and at least $2,300 every time but twice. For those who can pick the top four horses, superfectas are where the true spoils are found.

In 2005, the payday was $864,253. The following year was a dead heat for fourth so it had two nice payouts: $84,860 and $59,839. From 2007 to 2014, the superfectas returned at least $15,000 with two reaching well into six figures.

The reason for the big returns? A 20-horse field where the money gets spread out combined with the unpredictability of young and, in some cases, lightly prepped colts running farther than they've ever had to run makes the race a hard one to figure.

But not impossible.

There are trends.

Last year was an outlier. American Pharoah, the eventual Triple Crown winner, lived up to his reputation and won the race as a favorite. At 5-2 odds, he was followed across the wire by horses that went off at 9-1, 4-1 and 10-1. The trifecta paid $202 and the superfecta a paltry $1,268.

That's un-Derby-like. Since superfectas were introduced to the Derby in 1996, only the 1997 race failed to bring back at least $1,600 before last year.

Going back to 1980, there has been at least one horse at 20-1 or worse odds land among the first four finishers in 27 races. Eight times there were two or more of these kinds of longshots blowing up tickets.

So having at least one bomber on the ticket is a prudent play.

After the longshot, the player better find the sweet spot with the second-level horses, those with odds between 5-1 and 15-1. These horses tend to rule the place and show portions of the exotic wager. Since 1994 when trifectas were brought to the race, two mid-range odds horses have shown up on tickets 12 times. Three of them have shown up eight times.

There was a time when favorites didn't win the race. Since 1980, 22 favorites didn't even make a ticket. But times are changing at Churchill Downs. Besides winning the last three races, the favorites have won it six times since 2004. However, in the same span, five times they've failed to finish in the top four.

So it's feast or famine for the favorite. Count on at least one longshot shocking the betting public. Fill in with solid second-tier horses that show they can handle the distance and take the jostling that comes with a 20-horse stampede. That's largely been the anatomy of a winning ticket on the first Saturday in May.

Putting the favorite on top of the trifecta ticket with two bombers and two mid-rangers costs $12 on a $1 bet. Add in one more horse and it's $20. The favorite over six horses costs $30. As long as the horse on top of the ticket wins the race and any combination of the horses you played finish second and third, you're cashing a ticket.

Superfectas are pricier. The favorite over two bombers and two others is $24. Add one more horse to the superfecta key and it's $60.

Recent history shows if the favorite is more like Bellamy Road, Sweetnorthern Saint, Friesan Fire, Lookin At Lucky or Dialed In and less like Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Big Brown, Orb, California Chrome or American Pharoah, it is best to leave it off the ticket.

In that case boxing up two or three of the mid-rangers with a longshot might be the way to go. The horses can finish in any order as long as they land in the top three of the tri or top four of the super. Four-horse boxes cost $24 each on $1 bets.

It's going to take some money to have the potential of making a lot of money.

It's OK to play win, place or show. It's fine to bet exactas, too, but the lure of the Derby is the once-a-year chance to cash big tickets. That's why it is horse racing's Powerball.

Railbird Rob's Picks

13. Nyquist (3-1) — The favorite checks all the boxes. He's properly seasoned with seven lifetime starts. He's undefeated. He's shown speed. He's beaten his biggest rival Exaggerator three times. He's shown he can be bumped around at the start and still win like in the Breeders Cup. He's won the Florida Derby, one of the best indicators of Kentucky success among the prep races.

11. Exaggerator (8-1) — Speed ratings of 101 or better in its last four outings shows it has class. Winning the Santa Anita Derby by six lengths after being sixth in the final turn shows it has toughness. But can it finally beat Nyquist?

17. Mor Spirit (12-1) — Trainer Bob Baffert's only entry has an old reliable hand on the back with Gary Stevens. It is a horse that can come from behind and close the deal down the stretch.

9. Destin (15-1) — One of two Todd Pletcher entries with Javier Castellano as the jockey likes to win with a stalker's pace, which is a good style to have in the Derby.

Longshots:

2. Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) — The common characteristic of longshots that do well in the Derby is closing speed as front-runners fall off the pace. This is a true closer with some results.

18. Majesto (30-1) — The entry finished second to Nyquist in the Florida Derby following in its wake.

Rob McCurdy is the sports writer at The Marion Star and has been wagering on the Kentucky Derby for more than 15 years. He can be reached at rmccurdy@gannett.com, (work) 740-375-5158 or (cell) 419-610-0998. On Twitter follow @McMotorsport.