NEWS

John Kasich's biggest day is today. What's at stake in New Hampshire primary

Chrissie Thompson
cthompson@usatoday.com

MANCHESTER, N.H. – John Kasich is preparing for the biggest day of his life.

On Tuesday, New Hampshire voters will cast primary ballots that determine the future of his presidential campaign.

If he wins or places in the top tier, he’ll have strong reasons to continue in the race for the Republican nomination. If he falls behind his closest rivals, he’ll face pressure to drop out, and his hope of serving as the nation’s next president will evaporate.

On Monday, Kasich stood on the cusp of something – and knew it.

Attendees listen to Gov. John Kasich answer questions at a town hall at Plaistow Public Library in Plaistow, N.H. on Monday, Feb. 8, 2016.

“If I ramble a little bit, forgive me. This is my last town hall,” Kasich, fighting a cold, told voters in Manchester. His tone turned contemplative, and throughout the day he told old stories about his late parents, his wife and a random guy he met at a gas station, who inspired him to push to balance the budget as a congressman.

The transformation of John Kasich

“I want to bring out the best of what we are as Americans,” Kasich said in Windham, asking the state’s famously undecided voters to propel his candidacy.

How undecided?

Mark Croteau, a Nashua truck driver, was making phone calls for Carly Fiorina at her campaign office on Saturday. But that didn't stop him from checking out Marco Rubio Saturday morning and Jeb Bush Sunday. He decided on Bush, but thought he'd give Kasich one more shot Monday morning -- and spent the rest of the day attending each of Kasich's events and putting up yard signs for the governor.

"Back in the summer, he was my favorite candidate. But he was polling so low, I didn't think I wanted to waste my vote," Croteau said. Now, Kasich is performing better. And, Croteau said, "he seems like he can work with both parties and get things done."

On Monday night, as many as 150 volunteers rallied with Kasich in a snowstorm outside Robie's Country Store in Hooksett.

Gov. John Kasich's supporters gather outside Robie's Country Store for a rally in Hooksett, N.H, Monday, Feb. 8, 2016.

"How could you possibly say thanks?" Kasich asked.

"Win!" a few people shouted.

"We will win!" Kasich whooped back.

Still, a win in New Hampshire would be an upset. Even with a strong showing, Kasich faces hurdles as he continues his campaign.

These factors will determine whether Kasich succeeds Tuesday

How polls say he will do

Donald Trump continues to hold a 15- to 20-percentage-point lead in New Hampshire polls, with Kasich still in a tight battle for second place.

After his better-than-expected finish in Iowa, Rubio had pulled into second by himself, but his small lead over Kasich and other rivals appears to have evaporated after Rubio’s rough debate performance Saturday. And Kasich’s momentum, which started in early January, appears to have continued, helped in part by his strong debate performance Saturday.

Beyond questions about Rubio’s strength, the main wild card involves the frontrunner. Will Trump struggle, as he did in Iowa, to turn supporters out to vote? Will his support wane now that he has finished in second in one contest? If the latter takes place, other candidates, ranging from Kasich to conservative Sen. Ted Cruz, could pick up some of Trump’s voters.

For John Kasich, two roads diverge in New Hampshire primary

What voters are saying

Gov. John Kasich answers questions at a town hall at Plaistow Public Library  in Plaistow, N.H. on Monday, Feb. 8, 2016.

Voters at Kasich’s town hall meetings Monday praised his experience as Ohio’s executive and his message of bipartisanship, with many saying they preferred to vote for a governor over a first-term senator such as Rubio. That was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s main critique of Rubio during Saturday’s debate, but it seemed to have boosted Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as much as it did Christie.

“The last debate kind of turned me” away from Rubio, said retired engineer Greg Hunter, of Wakefield. Now, Hunter is choosing between Bush and Kasich.

“I’m sort of a Chris Christie girl. But he’s very far back in the polls, and I don’t want to waste a vote,” said Bedford attorney Marla Margolis. She said she thinks Kasich is “such a nice guy,” and she agrees with many of his more moderate stances. But she’ll look at polls tomorrow morning before making a final decision.

Tim and Leah Costine, of Plaistow, had decided to vote for Rubio. But they decided to give Kasich another look Monday morning because of "his unifying demeanor," Tim Costine said.

Costine, a 35-year-old hardware store employee, said he still might vote for Rubio. But Rubio's debate performance Saturday made him wonder.

"I want to vote for someone who I believe is going to be able to speak knowledgeably and clearly," he said.

How he’s making his case

Kasich held four town halls and a rally Monday to make his final pitch. Only two presidential candidates -- Kasich and former GOP nominee John McCain -- have held more than 100 town hall meetings in New Hampshire, said John Weaver, who served as a campaign strategist for both men.

A main message in the town hall meetings Monday, as Kasich sought to compete for voters considering Trump, Rubio and even Democrat Bernie Sanders: “People try to call me establishment, and I’m not," he said in Plaistow. "Because I know what they are. … They don’t change.”

Gov. John Kasich takes a photo with Meghan, Logan Elise and Miguel Peschiera, after his town hall at Deerfield Restaurant in Manchester, N.H. Monday, Feb. 8, 2016.

Kasich’s political action committee and campaign continue to run TV commercials that tout his accomplishments as governor and, in one PAC commercial, mock opponents for negative campaigning.

“Politics has become nasty and desperate. It doesn't have to be that way,” Kasich tells viewers in the final ad from his campaign. “Let’s change the world.”

Several hundred volunteers, many from Ohio, also have poured into New Hampshire to help the campaign and the PAC go door-to-door and call voters in the last days before voting.

What his opponents say

Commercials and mailers against Kasich have continued to warn ominously that Kasich is an "Obama Republican" who doesn't line up with New Hampshire voters on conservative issues.

Meanwhile, Christie made headlines Sunday for a backhanded critique of Kasich. (He had declined to attack Kasich in Saturday's debate when an ABC News moderator teed him up.)

"I've known Kasich for a long time. I can tell you, his fellow governors call him lots of things. 'The prince of sunshine and light' is not one of them, all right? That's OK. John's in the midst of reforming himself," Christie said, referencing Kasich's "prince of light" riff. "It's about being tested, though. John's had a Republican Legislature this entire time. I mean, it's like Candyland in Ohio."

Kasich, for what it's worth, has indeed worked on his demeanor in public since he first started exploring a presidential bid. And he's successfully wrangled legislative leaders to go along with some of his more moderate priorities, including Medicaid expansion. (Then House Speaker Bill Batchelder replaced two lawmakers on a state panel that voted for the expansion, allowing it to pass.)

But his standoffs with GOP state lawmakers have been long and sometimes dramatic.

These ads are hammering John Kasich. Are they fair?

What's so special about the New Hampshire primary?

It's not just that New Hampshire votes early. Close to half of the state's 883,000 voters choose not to affiliate themselves with a party. Plus, the state allows voters to register at the door on Primary Day.

The end result is a primary that lends itself to electing a more pragmatic GOP candidate than Iowa's conservative caucusgoers usually tap. The voters who haven't declared a party can vote in either contest. They often change their registration back to "undeclared" on the way out the door.

While statistics show nearly all of them will cast the same party’s ballots as they did in previous years, many undeclared voters consider candidates from both parties up until the primary.

The end result? New Hampshire tapped the eventual GOP nominee in 2008 and 2012, while Iowa did not.

Whether weather makes a difference

Several inches of snow fell on Monday, and roads became slick. The snowfall is supposed to have ended by Tuesday, but weather advisories included warnings for drifting and dangerous roads.

Gov. Kasich's bus parks in the snow outside his town hall at Seamless School and Chapel in Windham, N.H. on Monday, Feb. 8, 2016.

New Hampshire clears its roads quickly, and people are used to driving in snow. So the weather may not factor into primary results on Tuesday.

Still, Kasich supporters were glorying in the snow. If a person does stay home because of the weather, it's more likely to be a new voter who supports Trump than an establishment voter who likes Kasich.

What's next

If Kasich manages a top-tier finish, he hopes to attract money he badly needs to continue his candidacy in South Carolina, which holds the next Republican primary on Feb. 20.

Still, Kasich's candidacy, which has generally appealed more to establishment and moderate Republicans than to conservatives, will face hurdles even if he does well in New Hampshire.

After that South Carolina, the GOP contest hits several conservative Southern states before the primary season comes to Michigan and Ohio in mid-March. Kasich's challenge in the South is substantial enough that a Politico story Monday called it "a monthlong nightmare" and "miserable."

How to find out how he does

The Enquirer's Chrissie Thompson and Meg Vogel are in New Hampshire, covering Kasich. Follow them on Twitter via @CThompsonENQ and @MegVogelPhoto. They're also on Snapchat at "EnquirerSnaps."

Thompson will host an "Ask Me Anything" on Reddit at noon Tuesday. Check out the Cincinnati subreddit for more info.

Most polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Watch for coverage at Cincinnati.com and on Twitter, or join fellow politics junkies at The Enquirer's watch party for primary returns. The event starts at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday at The Pub At Rookwood Mews, 2692 Madison Rd, Cincinnati. RSVP here.