NEWS

Ohio winter more weird than wild

Todd Hill
Reporter

BUCYRUS - All weather is local. That was never more true than it has been this winter.

Regardless of what your favorite groundhog predicted last week, we still have about five more weeks to endure before the arrival of the vernal equinox. However, the sun isn't only rising earlier and setting later with each passing day now, it's also climbing higher in the sky, an annual progression that will eventually force winter to skedaddle, possibly before March 20 even gets here.

Before that happens though, we have to get through the next few days.

"For those wanting warmer weather, you are going to be disappointed," the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Cleveland said in a forecast discussion released early Thursday.

The coldest temperatures of the season are expected to infiltrate Ohio this weekend, with forecast highs Saturday in the low teens across the southern half of the state and in the single digits to the north. Overnight lows around or below zero can be expected for many, with bitterly cold wind chills on top of that.

And we might see some more snow to round out the holiday weekend. More on that later.

Even so, those conversations we always overhear at the bank or the grocery about how spring can't come soon enough for some people might ring a bit hollow this year. Serious winter weather has been intermittent at best across the Buckeye State. The season essentially took December off, with virtually no snow anywhere in the state, even including the snowbelt counties east of Cleveland. It kicked in for a couple weeks in the middle of January, and is back for a return engagement this week. But that's been about it, a marked departure from the past two winters here.

This was supposed to be the winter of El Nino, as the periodic weather phenomenon originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean ramped up to become one of the strongest on record last November, when it peaked.

Drought-stricken California was supposed to be drenched with rain this winter; it hasn't been. The Midwest was told it would be basking in warmth, and we did for a time. Another ocean-dwelling climate phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation, started slipping into its negative phase last month, which corresponds with cold and snowy conditions in this neck of the woods, and El Nino, strong as it was, had to take a back seat.

But in one respect the 2015-16 El Nino has performed as advertised. The most active storm track this winter has stayed just to the south and east of the Ohio Valley, as predicted. As a result, southern Ohio has seen more snow this season than many locations across the northern reaches of the state. That's backwards.

On average, most of Ohio — from Jackson County in the south up to Wood County just below Toledo — receives 20 to 30 inches of snow during the winter. The Ohio River counties from Cincinnati east to Marietta typically get less than 20 inches. North central Ohio, extending down into most of Morrow and Knox counties and a bit of Licking County, usually sees 30 to 40 inches of snow.

And then there's the snowbelt: Some parts of Geauga County push 100 inches of snow each winter.

This winter, however, south central Ohio, extending eastward toward the Muskingum River, has gotten the most snow, excepting of course the snowbelt. On Thursday, the deepest snow cover in the state, upwards of 8 inches, could be found in Tarlton, a village on the Pickaway/Fairfield county line. Along much of the U.S. 30 corridor, about 90 miles to the north, only 2 inches were on the ground.

That could change over the Presidents Day weekend, but as of Thursday afternoon there were more questions than answers about what's coming.

"A potent low pressure system is forecast to develop to the west Sunday night ahead of a digging trough, with the surface low tracking south of the area Monday and Monday night. A large swath of precipitation will accompany this system," the National Weather Service's forecast office in Wilmington said in a forecast discussion Thursday.

However, the NWS forecast office in Pittsburgh, which covers much of eastern Ohio, cautioned that "models are still having some difficulty with the next disturbance moving in Sunday night," in yet another forecast discussion.

In other words, the weather forecast for the period bears watching. Canceling any travel plans, however, might be premature at this point.

Our temperatures will warm back up to seasonal levels early next week, with highs in the 30s. Another storm system for that period is expected to again keep to our south and east, following this winter's most active track.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center expects temperatures across the Great Lakes region to climb back above normal, and above freezing, by late next week, remaining there for the rest of this month.

Finally, don't even think about ice fishing on Lake Erie this winter, unless you're headed for Point Pelee on the Canadian side, where the ice concentration is at 100 percent, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. East of the Marblehead Peninsula to Toledo, ice coverage is less than 50 percent, and only close to shore.

thill3@nncogannett.com

419-563-9225

Twitter: @ToddHillMNJ

Total snowfall, Nov. 1 to Feb. 10

Marion, Marion County - 2.7 inches

Granville, Licking County - 5.3 inches

Bucyrus, Crawford County - 6.0 inches

Dover, Tuscarawas County - 6.3 inches

Castalia, Erie County - 7.0 inches

Fredericktown, Knox County - 9.0 inches

New Lexington, Perry County - 13.4 inches

Mansfield, Richland County - 14.9 inches

Albany, Athens County - 17.2 inches

Montville, Geauga County - 70.6 inches

Sources: Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network; National Weather Service