OHIO STATE

Jon Spencer handicaps the Big Ten football race

Jon Spencer
Reporter

Could the Buckeyes win the Big Ten with strictly back-up players? No. Wait ... maybe. They did just win a national championship behind their third-string quarterback. Certainly the odds of winning the conference with Urban Meyer’s reserves can’t be any longer than me completely nailing how the league will shake out.

And yet I continue to give it the old college try.

EAST DIVISION

1. Ohio State: What, you thought I was going to repeat my 2014 mistake and pick Michigan State to win the Big Ten? When the Buckeyes are a unanimous pick in the Associated Press poll to win it all? I’ve bucked trends, but I’m not bucking these Bucks. They’d have to dip all the way down to Stephen Collier at quarterback and lose four starters on the offensive line not to repeat as Big Ten champs. The key will be getting through the 10-game “exhibition” schedule healthy so they can be ready for a five-game gauntlet at the end, beginning with back-to-backs with Michigan State and Michigan to end the regular season.

2. Michigan State: Some of the analysts seem to think OSU can lose one game and still get into the playoffs, as was the case last season. I don’t see it. They won’t get any mulligans in the first 10 games this season — the talent disparity is too great — and the Buckeyes won’t have the excuse of breaking in a new QB and OL like last season. You never want to lose late — in this case Nov. 21 vs. the Spartans or Nov. 28 at Michigan. If the Spartans win, that just might be enough to propel them into the B1G title game. Quarterback Connor Cook and defensive end Shilique Calhoun lead a large senior class that has been part of back-to-back top 5 finishes.

3. Penn State: Given protection, Christian Hackenberg can be as good a passer as there is in the country. We saw that in the Pinstripe Bowl, where he threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns in an overtime win against Boston College. This after a regular-season that saw the franchise QB toss 15 interceptions when he wasn’t getting sacked 44 times. This season eight starters are back on offense, including four up front. Second-year coach James Franklin is out from under NCAA sanctions and hopes more depth, more experience and a softer schedule leads to more victories.

4. Michigan: The arrival of Jim Harbaugh should be good for at least two wins, which based off last year’s results would get the Wolverines to 7-5. But unless he’s a miracle worker, his alma mater isn’t anywhere near ready to contend. There’s a broken offense to fix and the quarterback to do it probably isn’t even on the roster. You saw what Harbaugh did in San Francisco with QB Colin Kaepernick, so maybe there’s hope for Shane Morris and Iowa transfer Jake Rudock. But until they find a running game to help take the burden off the defense, the Wolverines will have to settle for playing spoiler.

5. Indiana: Is this the season the Hoosiers break through and reach a bowl game for only the second time in the last quarter-century? Last year was going to be the year but strong-armed quaterback Nate Sudfeld got hurt mid-season. Now he’s back and IU brought in transfer Jordan Howard to replace 2,000-yard back Tevin Coleman. Howard rushed for 1,587 yards last year for UAB and will be operating behind an experienced line. Defense, as usual, will determine Indiana’s fate. It gave up 34 or more points in seven games last year.

6. Maryland: The Terrapins’ hopes hinge largely on their quarterback: likely either Caleb Rowe, an injury-prone quarterback with a limited sample size, or Oklahoma State transfer Daxx Garman, who threw for over 2,000 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight starts last season for the Cowboys. When he’s not nursing knee injuries, Rowe has shown promise in the pocket. Problem is, he has only played in 13 games in three seasons and has yet to finish a season. The Terps probably overachieved during last year’s 7-6 campaign and now the reality of losing 12 starters sets in. Only one starter returns in the defensive front seven, but that might actually be a good thing after Maryland gave up 40 or more points in five games last season and over 30 in two others.

7. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights went 3-1 at the end of last season to finish 8-5 in their first year of Big Ten play. They were also 4-1 in games decided by double digits, but staying close to the top-tier programs was a problem and could be an even bigger one this season with only four returning starters on offense. “Green and unsettled” is the best way to describe their quarterback situation and they’re also breaking in a new offensive coordinator. Rutgers plays OSU, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska in consecutive weeks — a stretch like last year where they beat Michigan but lost to the other three by an average margin of 31 points.

WEST DIVISION

1. Wisconsin: The Badgers have played in six straight New Year’s Day bowls, showing their resiliency last season in bouncing back from that 59-0 trouncing by Ohio State in the Big Ten title game to rally past Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Only four starters return on offense, but one of them is veteran Joel Stave, who puts a case of the “yips” behind him to win seven straight games leading up to the title game. Running back Corey Clement would have started at most schools, but he was behind Heisman finalist Melvin Gordon. Clement still managed 949 yards and nine TDs in a supporting role and should be in line for Big Ten honors this season under new coach Paul Chryst, architect of some potent Badger attacks from 2005-11. Road games at Nebraska and Minnesota likely will determine their fate.

2. Nebraska: You’ll never hear me complain about the Big Ten ridding itself of sour puss Bo Pelini. The Cornhuskers did little more than tread water under his leadership. Yes, they always won at least nine games in each of his seven seasons, but never won a conference championship game or played in a BCS bowl game. New coach Mike Riley, after a couple of stints covering 14 years at Oregon State, is the polar opposite of Pelini with more of a calm, relaxed style. How well that translates to the field will depend largely on finding a replacement for tailback Ameer Abdullah and less erratic play from veteran quarterback Tommy Armstrong.

3. Minnesota: Everybody seems to like the Gophers as a darkhorse contender in the division, with 17 starters back from an 8-5 squad and a favorable schedule that brings Wisconsin and Nebraska to Minneapolis. They return experience at quarterback in Mitch Leidner, but must find an explosive threat to complement him after losing last year’s two biggest weapons — tight end Maxx Williams and running back David Cobb, whose 1,626 yards last season was a school rushing record. It’s easy to root for nice guy coach Jerry Kill, who has battled epilepsy to turn Minnesota from a pushover into a program that bears watching.

4. Iowa: A huge buyout has probably been the only thing that has saved coach Kirk Ferentz’ job, but after five straight unremarkable seasons the school might be ready to bite the bullet if there isn’t noticeable improvement this season. Hard to see that given huge question marks on the offensive line and running game in general. The Hawkeyes could use a few of the Ohio State playmakers who will spend more time watching than playing this season. Ferentz made a big decision in January by tagging C.J. Beathard his quarterback, thus freeing senior Jake Rudock — who threw for 2,436 yards and 16 touchdowns, with only five interceptions — to transfer to Michigan. Ferentz’ future at Iowa could rest on how that decision plays out.

5. Northwestern: Pat Fitzgerald was one of the youngest coaches in the nation when he took over his alma mater 10 years ago, but consecutive 5-7 seasons will age you in a hurry. So might deciding from among three quarterbacks, the challenge in front of him this season. His options are dual-threats Matt Alviti and Clayton Thorson and big-armed fifth-year senior Zack Oliver. Fitzgerald has used multiple quarterbacks before and will probably do it again if it helps reverse the recent downward trend. Until things are sorted out there, the Wildcats can always lean on running back Justin Jackson, a 1,000-yard back last year as a freshman.

•6. Purdue: Coach Darrell Hazell is an ex-Ohio State assistant on the hot seat entering his third season with only four victories to show for his efforts. Is it just me or can you hear Simon & Garfunkel singing “Where have you gone Joe (insert Tiller for DiMaggio)?” Getting to .500 and playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2012 will be difficult for a program that is very young, especially at the skill positions. Quarterback Austin Appleby needs to return to the form that led to 107 points in his first three starts after taking over at mid-season. In November, the Boilers scored only 60 points in four contests. If that trend continues, they are looking at a ninth straight season without a winning record in Big Ten play. Purdue was 5-3 under Tiller in 2006.

•7. Illinois: Head coach Tim Beckman was fired last week after an external investigation in to allegations that included mistreatment of players. It’s hard to believe this is the same guy who turned things around at Toledo and cut his teeth under Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel. The Illini have improved from two wins to four to six in Beckman’s three years, but progress hasn’t come fast enough or, obviously, without off-field drama. Beckman was replaced on an interim basis by offensive coordinator Bill Cubit. Quarterback Wes Lunt, a transfer from Oklahoma State, can make all the throws, but his play was spotty last season. It doesn’t help that 2014 freshman star receiver Mikey Dudek, considered the best player on the team, tore his ACL in spring ball. OSU can overcome a ton of adversity, but I’m not sure this program can.