MLB

Crunching the numbers: Will Tribe have bats to contend?

Jon Spencer
Reporter

A travel-weary Matt Underwood just returned to northern Ohio from Los Angeles, greeted by snow that turned a typical three-hour flight from the west coast into a 11-hour ordeal. Spring training can't get here soon enough for the Ashland native and TV voice of the Cleveland Indians.

Even if it means talking about BABIP.

"I have no idea what that means," an exasperated Underwood said.

For uninitiated baseball fans, which probably includes everyone but the nerdiest Millennials, BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play and measures how often plate appearances ending in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher's interference, sacrifice bunt or home run result in a hit.

Like spending the better part of a day sitting on a plane that hasn't budged from the tarmac, baseball sabermetrics can make you bleary-eyed.

"It's the new language, the new lexicon," Underwood said during Thursday's annual Tribe Talk luncheon in Mansfield, presented by the Mansfield Kiwanis and WMAN Radio and catered by Ed Pickens' Cafe on Main. "It's the numbers front offices use to evaluate players and how they fit."

Tribe VP of public affairs Bob DiBiasio, who joined Underwood and radio voice Jim Rosenhaus on Thursday's panel, kidded that Cleveland's analytics gurus sit in a dark room on the fourth floor of Progressive Field, staring at 17 video monitors.

"Old school" Bob can joke all he wants, but he knows the new-age way of gauging performance isn't going away. Infield shifts have been around for nearly a century but have been more commonplace, as Underwood pointed out, because of advanced metrics.

He used Tigers' star J.D. Martinez as an example. Of the first 250 groundballs Martinez put in play, all but five went to the left side of the infield. Based on that data, it's a no-brainer to have an extra infielder shaded toward that side.

"You're playing the numbers game," Underwood said. "It's like going to Vegas. You're playing the odds. If you only hit five balls over there, let's put one more guy over here."

Discussed in L.A. at a Fox Sports affiliates meeting was a poll of 1,000 baseball fans and what they care about most. No. 1 was performance of their favorite team. No. 2 was performance of their favorite player. No. 14, out of 24, said Underwood, was advanced metrics and statistics.

"Our job as (broadcasters)," Underwood said,  "is to take that information and present it to the viewer without putting you to sleep."

Here are some numbers offered by Underwood that should have the opposite effect on Tribe fans:

*Last year, when the Indians scored first, they were 53-14. When the opposition struck first, Cleveland was 28-66.

*Cleveland pitchers threw 693 no-hit innings, which was tops in the majors. The next closest team was 32 innings behind.

"It gives you hope, give you reason to believe that with this pitching staff, they can compete and this will be an exciting season," Underwood said.

Getting off to a fast start, not only in games, but in April, will also be key.  The Indians were 7-14 in April last year and have a combined 29-45 record (.392) in March and April during Terry Francona's three years as manager combined with a 229-182 mark (.557) from May 1 on.

You don't have to be sabermetrician, or even someone who advanced beyond Algebra II, to figure out that since the Indians were 81-80 last season, that means they were eight games over .500 after they said good riddance to April.

"All we have to do is win two more games a month," DiBiasio, the eternal optimist, said. "That gets us over 90 wins and puts us in position to win the division."

Or even run away with it.

In its latest analytics projections, Fangraphs.com has the Indians winning the American League's Central Division with an 84-78 record and reigning World Series winner Kansas City at 79-83, with the White Sox and Tigers sandwiched in between, both at 81-81. No explanation, just a chart.

With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar at the front end of the rotation, 84 wins seems very do-able if the offense is doing its part. Big if.

With Michael Brantley recovering from shoulder surgery and possibly out at least the first month of the season, the projected opening day outfield is Lonnie Chisenhall (RF), Abraham Almonte (CF) and 35-year Rajai Davis (LF). Those three combined for 20 homers last season.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor is a budding star, second baseman Jason Kipnis is coming off his second All-Star Game appearance in three years and catcher Yan Gomes is healthy again and perhaps ready to regain the form that led to a Silver Slugger Award in 2014.

Free agent signee Mike Napoli is an upgrade over Carlos Santana at first base, bolstering a defense that went from one of the worst in the majors to second best behind KC in the American League with the emergence of Lindor at shortstop, the slick fielding of youngster Giovanny Urshela at third and the surprising glove work of Chisenhall after he moved from the hot corner to the outfield.

But concerns over Urshela's bat have the Indians entertaining the possibility of signing 37-year-old Juan Uribe or another veteran to man third while Urshela gets more seasoning in the minors. Santana's greatest skill is drawing walks, not exactly the No. 1 job description of a slugger, and there's no guarantee the 34-year-old Napoli will take some of that onus off Santana. Napoli was hitting only .193 (.648 OPS) last year at the All-Star break. After that it was .283 (.903 OPS) for an overall stat line with Boston and Texas of .224 and .734, with 18 homers and 50 RBI.

Will he make fans forget Mark Reynolds and Brandon Moss, the last two free agents sluggers who fizzled? And can the 35-year-old Davis give the Tribe the speed element missing from Michael Bourn before the team gave up and traded him and Nick Swisher to Atlanta last season?

Davis had 11 triples last season, but Cleveland thought Bourn still had life left in his legs when it acquired him, too.

The recurring theme Thursday was that this Cleveland team is built on pitching and defense. It's been a winning blueprint before, but I doubt that the demographic Tribe marketers are trying to reach remember the 1969 New York Mets.

Back then, there wasn't any talk of advanced metrics. All the numbers you needed to know were on the back of bubblegum cards.

jspencer@nncogannett.com

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Cleveland is hoping that free agent signee Mike Napoli can provide some pop in the Tribe lineup.
Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor motions to the crowd after hitting a home run last season against the Minnesota Twins.
Manager Terry Francona and shortstop Francisco Lindor give Cleveland Indians fans optimism for the 2016 season.