Kasich ‘comeback’ qualifies him for GOP debate
MANCHESTER, N.H. – Ohio Gov. John Kasich has cleared the first hurdle of his presidential candidacy: In a “comeback” of sorts, he’s made the list of 10 candidates who will participate in Thursday’s GOP debate in Cleveland.
The debate qualification, based on average performance in recent national polls, seemed improbable just a few weeks ago. Kasich was drawing 1 percent to 2 percent in national polls, finishing outside the top 10.
Even some allies questioned whether he’d be able to turn around his performance in time for Tuesday’s deadline. Kasich advisers downplayed the importance of the debate, even as they strategized to try to get the governor in the mix.
In the end, the late date of Kasich’s campaign launch — two weeks ago Tuesday — came at exactly the right time.
Despite a Donald Trump-heavy news cycle, and despite the meandering nature of his 43-minute launch speech, Kasich’s launch permeated the national consciousness just enough to boost his polling performance to the 3 to 4 percentage point range in the past two weeks.
That was enough for him to finish 10th in the list released Tuesday evening by Fox News, host of the debate at 9 p.m. Thursday. Kasich edged out former Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina also missed the cut. They and other candidates outside the top 10 will be invited to participate in a smaller debate at 5 p.m. Thursday.
Kasich’s move to the top 10 lends credence to the two-term governor and former congressman’s 2016 presidential bid. But an improvement of a few percentage points can hardly be called a “surge.”
He’s seen a more pronounced rise in New Hampshire polls, finishing as high as third in the home of the nation’s first primary, but the Fox News criteria emphasized national name-recognition over the traditional state-by-state primary process.
Indeed, the use of national polls to determine participants in debates continues to draw criticism.
With fractions of a percentage point separating some of the GOP’s 17 major candidates for president, the debate criteria caused hand-wringing over issues such as rounding or margins of error.
One major independent survey, the McClatchy-Marist Poll, suspended polling on the GOP primary in protest that the debate criteria expected polls to be too precise and unfairly compared national polls by averaging them.
Qualifying for the first debate will earn Kasich more than bragging rights. Its location, Cleveland, guarantees that swing-state Ohio will be top of mind for reporters and debate moderators.
Kasich has touted his landslide November 2014 re-election — to be sure, against a stunningly weak Democratic candidate — as a main asset for his presidential bid. He can win Ohio, he says.
“It’s only fitting that this phase of the Republican presidential nomination begins in Ohio — the Mother of Presidents. After all, no Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio,” Kasich said in a statement Tuesday evening.
Earlier Tuesday, ahead of a campaign appearance in New Hampshire, Kasich was warming up his Ohio pitch.
“People who think they can come in there and be bombastic or a divider, you can’t win that way,” he said. “People want to know you’re a builder, not someone who’s going to tear things down.”
Thursday’s debate will mark Kasich’s first time onstage with national GOP poll leader Trump, who declined to participate in Monday’s 14-person candidate forum televised by CSPAN.